CMIP7 scenarios focus on emissions trajectories
In April 2026, ScenarioMIP, the international research effort that produces the scenario data underlying most climate risk tools and disclosure frameworks, published the experimental design for seven representative emissions scenarios that will underpin part of CMIP7. These scenarios are named according to their emissions trajectory, rather than a predetermined temperature outcome. Earth system model simulations will ultimately determine the warming associated with each pathway. This distinction matters: an emissions pathway is not a forecast.
A narrower emissions range does not mean less risk
Compared with CMIP6, the new design reflects a narrower range of plausible emissions. But this doesn’t mean a narrower risk range. At the upper end, the CMIP7 High scenario assumes policy rollback and continued fossil fuel dependence, but its emissions remain below those of SSP5-8.5. At the lower end, even the Very Low scenario anticipates a temporary overshoot of 1.5°C before returning to that level by the end of the century. High-to-Low and Medium-to-Low pathways also explore what happens when the direction of travel changes after a period of higher emissions.
Uncertainty around climate sensitivity and carbon-cycle feedback means that severe warming outcomes remain possible. For organizations, the central lesson is unchanged: scenario analysis should test resilience across several plausible futures, including low-likelihood, high-impact outcomes, rather than treating any single scenario as a prediction.
The IPCC did not develop or endorse these scenarios; it will assess them as part of its next major report, due in 2029, so expect a gradual transition into the new guidance, not an immediate methodological reset.
What should companies do now?
Existing CMIP6- and SSP-based assessments do not need to be discarded. Organizations can continue using them while documenting why they selected particular scenarios, testing their strategies against different transition speeds, and monitoring how data providers and disclosure frameworks incorporate CMIP7.
Scenarios evolve. The purpose of scenario analysis remains the same: to support better decisions under uncertainty.
